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Well folks, it’s that time of year again to make the wrong fantasy pick. Nothing beats the valuable time spent overthinking them, and that’s what I’m here for. I’ll do all the skeptical stuff and you just make the picks and win your league. You’re welcome. Let’s get into it.
*Note: Pep is a degenerate gambler and prefers to bet on highly risky props and parlays. He makes many baseless claims that are deemed “hot takes” and highly skeptical. His opinions should not be taken seriously in any way whatsoever and he has no credibility. He is not a financial advisor. 1. Justin Jefferson - WR Minnesota Vikings Chances are you’re not going to pick first overall so let’s just move on. 2. Christian McCaffrey - RB, San Francisco 49ers McCaffrey is a no brainer here, right? Well just remember that you’re picking an insanely talented player that plays for a franchise that’s been cursed with losing star players to injuries every season. It’s almost inexplicable at this point. It’s basically inevitable. I know it’s unfair to speculate this much here but I just can’t pick McCaffrey. But you will, and he’s going to have multiple 30 point games. I’m rooting for you. 3. Ja’Marr Chase - WR, Cincinnati Bengals Ja’Marr Chase is going to break the slate 2, maybe 3 times this season and still, I don’t feel like taking him at 3. To be honest I'd love to have pick 6 and after just so I'm not crushed with overthinking picks 2-5. Everybody's good here but I have weird fantasy standards. I like consistency. Ja'Marr Chase will have 2-3 games where he catches 3 touchdowns, and then he'll get you a solid 10-20 points for every other game. I'll fully accept losing to teams with Ja'Marr Chase this season when he breaks the slate on me but I will be passing on him. 4. Austin Ekeler - RB, I’m saying San Diego Chargers There's a line you're going to hear in just about every single political ad from 2024: "This is a critical moment in our nation's history." Then they'll rant about the radical *insert side here*, get elected, then do nothing but trade stocks with insider information and that's about it. Well this is a critical moment in the league's history. Owners are pushing for running backs to get paid like they should get home from practice then work the DoorDash night shift and bang on doors when they don't get tipped, only for their frustration to go viral because the customer had a ring cam. It's a sick world we live in. Austin Ekeler is the candidate that will do something about it. Once upon a time he and James Conner accidentally became the running backs to prove that Melvin Gordon and Le'veon Bell didn't deserve big contracts which ultimately started the fall of the value of RB. Austin Ekeler is the undisputed king of check down touchdowns. He's going to rush rush for 600 yards and it doesn't matter. He's going to catch 20 check down touchdowns because he needs to show why running backs should be paid more than $7 an hour to play in the NFL. It's what he does and he'll get the job done. Shit, I'll chip in $10 of my fantasy winnings to his pay check if that's what it takes. James Conner, for this reason too, will be in my crosshairs in later rounds. 5. Cooper Kupp - WR, Los Angeles Rams Tonight I saw a clip of Sean McVay being excited about one of his players returning a pick six in a preseason game. Can we all agree that we love Sean McVay as a coach but he has a tough season ahead due to a rather lackluster roster? Can Cooper Kupp put together a season like 2021 again? Does Matt Stafford have 2 healthy elbows and a desire to keep playing football? Am I going to start being excited about Ben Skowronek and Van Jefferson? Do we all have to learn the hard way with Cam Akers for like the 3rd season in a row? Okay - bottom line is - there are better players on the board than Cooper Kupp here. I said it. 6. Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs Travis Kelce has a mom, did you know that? He also has a brother that plays in the NFL. His mother loves both brothers very much and cheers for both equally if they were ever to face off in a Super Bowl. Okay, now that we've gotten that hilariously funny for eternity anecdote out of the way let's discuss Travis Kelce's fantasy value, as I'm sure most are unaware about it. He plays in an offense crafted by the best mind in the game right now, with the best quarterback in the game, with an uninspiring group of wide receivers that are going to compete for who can get injured the most times in a season. We’re about 5 years away from him having a subpar season. Don’t believe the articles accusing him of being too old to play. They said the same thing about that one old QB too. I believe you know who I'm talking about. Vinny Testaverde. 7. Tyreek Hill - WR, Miami Dolphins Basically every fantasy player suffers when their quarterback goes down. But it was just hopeless watching the Skylar Thompson Dolphins last season. For this reason alone I’m going to say everybody should be hanging on the edge of their seat watching this position battle for QB2 go down in Miami right now. When is the last time a backup quarterback battle had such important implications? When is the last time you've paid attention to a backup quarterback competition? The value of a backup quarterback is basically nonexistent in today's NFL. Fans and players have become so used to seeing people like Mike Glennon launder big contracts out of organizations to have 2 decent starts in their career only to put a big pile of crap on the field when they try to "save the day" when the starter goes down. But Mike White is an exception to the rule. He made some exciting plays for the Jets when the offensive line decided to block anything at all. Anyway. We love Tua, we don’t love Tua’s luck. If Mike White is QB2 I’ll gladly take Tyreek Hill at 7. 8. Saquon Barkley - RB, New York Giants The guy’s going to have 2000 scrimmage yards and be told he should make less money than Cole Kmet. It’s a sad, sad, world we live in these days. By the way, I’d take Saquon over Kupp, Kelce, and Hill. 9. Stefon Diggs - WR, Buffalo Bills Diggs is the safest pick in the top 10 and I have no problem taking him here. There’s a fat chance your friends in your league will look past him and let him slide to 13-14. He will not be the slate breaking Ja’Marr Chase but he will give you a fantastic floor every week. Absolute smash of a pick. 10. Bijan Robinson - RB, Atlanta Falcons It’s first and goal on the one yard line. All the heavies are in to block. Arthur’s going to smash it in with Robinson. Wait. What the hell? I look away for a second and Scott Hanson is telling me MyCole Pruitt caught a 1 yard touchdown pass. Yeah, no thanks. 11. A.J. Brown - WR, Philadelphia Eagles The NFC version of Stefon Diggs. 12. Davante Adams - WR, Las Vegas Raiders This goes one of 2 ways: This season turns into a Cinderella story for Jimmy G and the Raiders enjoy unexpected great success OR there’s a meltdown of insane proportions boiling after week 4 and Davante Adams quits on the team Randy Moss 2005 Raiders style or gets traded. Can’t do it, not at pick 12. 13. CeeDee Lamb - WR, Dallas Cowboys I cannot and will not take CeeDee Lamb. He's great at football! But take a moment and think if you know anyone who's won a fantasy league with him. He's definitely going for 1150 yards and 7 touchdowns or something like that, and all of his great weeks are going to happen on weeks you don’t really need them. It’s baseless, it’s unfair, it’s a hot take, and you know it’s 100% true. I'm not doing it. 14. Jonathan Taylor - RB, Indianapolis Colts If you’re like me and you love the challenge of burning an early draft pick on a player that’s not going to play and putting your team’s fate in the hands of later players and frantic waiver acquisitions then you’ll love taking Jonathan Taylor here. 15. Nick Chubb - RB, Cleveland Browns THE MOST DEPENDABLE FANTASY FOOTBALL PLAYER OF THE LAST 5 YEARS AND HE NEVER GETS CREDIT FOR IT. A STEAL. Don't care if it's PPR. Nick Chubb does his thing, especially with no more Kareem Hunt in the mix. 16. Tony Pollard - RB, Dallas Cowboys All jokes aside it’s basically stealing getting Chubb or Pollard here. Good for you. 17. Patrick Mahomes - QB, The whole world Patrick Mahomes at 17 is reserved for the person playing fantasy football for the first time ever. Be a true friend and let them take Mahomes here. 18. Josh Jacobs - RB, Las Vegas Raiders See Davante Adams. Or will he even play this season? Next Melvin Gordon? Plays and goes for 30+ points a few times again? I’ll just count on PFJ Alx to draft him here so I don’t have to. 19. Derrick Henry - RB, Tennessee Titans I feel like Henry's best days are behind him but it doesn't mean he can't have another decent fantasy year. Tennessee once again did very little to actually help their team this offseason so we'll be seeing more of the same across the board. 20. Amon-Ra St. Brown - WR, Detroit Lions St. Brown was the steal of the draft last season, all the way at 50! But he's sadly in the mainstream now and probably won’t be here by the time you pick but you might just luck out and snag him here. 21. Garrett Wilson - WR, New York Jets Garrett Wilson’s stock has been pumped so much I’m surprised he’s not in the top 10. His ceiling is beyond my comprehension. But actually. 22. Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills He’s pretty decent at the game of football. But taking a quarterback at 22 is not a strategy I agree with. And for the next guy... 23. Jalen Hurts - QB, Philadelphia Eagles You take Jalen Hurts here so I can take Trevor Lawrence wherever he is later on for about the same amount of fantasy points. Thank you. 24. Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins Okay, these early 20s are stacked with receivers and I think Waddle is more than a reasonable pick here. Again, if Mike White lands the QB2 job. 25. Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets No.
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Just hours after Colts owner Jim Irsay told reporters that there was merit to removing Washington's Dan Snyder from ownership, another report has emerged rebutting Irsay's comments. An anonymous source that owns the Washington Commanders, and spoke on the condition of anonymity vehemently denied that Irsay was serious in his comments made to ESPN. "He didn't mean that," said the source. "He meant non." "That's not true. All the owners hate Jim." Said the disgruntled anonymous Commanders owner and topic of recent Congressional investigations. "He probably doesn't even remember saying that. He was obviously intoxicated during the interview. Here's a picture of him with martinis and strippers before the interview that's not even photoshopped by the Commanders social media staff." At the conclusion of the interview, a conveniently timed leak to TMZ revealed several incriminating and damning allegations against Irsay and his businesses.  This column needed a break after my critical error in week 13. I failed to check the weather, and an already insane parlay became impossible. The elements in the Bills-Patriots game became too much for just about everything.
It was a learning experience. This week I look for redemption and forgiveness. The good news is that I don't have to change much of what I've written about the Patriots as my feelings about this team haven't changed. And the Patriots are playing in a dome. Back to it. Colts-Patriots SGP +2997 Odds, FanDuel -Kendrick Bourne Any Time TD Scorer -Jonathan Taylor Over 94.5 Rushing Yards -Kendrick Bourne Over 39.5 Receiving Yards -Brandon Bolden Under 28.5 Receiving Yards -Jakobi Meyers Over 44.5 Receiving Yards FanDuel is being sneaky here. Is 45+ yards from both Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne a lot to ask for here? Yes, but they are more than capable of doing that. Here's why: Let's break down the Patriots receiving corps. It goes a little like this: Jakobi Meyers gets the yards, Kendrick Bourne is a fantasy super star every 2 weeks, Nelson Agholor is an opportunist at most, Hunter Henry hawks the touchdown opportunities in the red zone, and Jonnu Smith is injured (he randomly caught a pass AND was active in week 14). Kendrick Bourne is at a nice value as an any time scorer at +200 here. It's been a couple of weeks, and he's ready to have that week as we are officially entering the fantasy football playoffs this week. Oh yeah, about Brandon Bolden. Damien Harris is out, and Bolden's a good pass catching running back. 28.5 receiving yards is still a little rich. I'm taking the under (feel free to fade this prop). The Indianapolis Jonathan Taylor's are freaking back this week. And since the Bills seem to believe that they can win football games by simply abandoning the running game almost completely, we are left analyzing the Patriots defense from its matchup the week before against the Tennessee Titans. In case you forgot, All Pros Dontrell Hilliard and D'Onta Foreman combined for 31 carries and 240 yards rushing in a blowout loss. Now this defense gets to face Jonathan Taylor and Indy's offensive line. Taylor has been seemingly unstoppable as of late and is rested coming off a bye week. Yeah, I cooked up this following parlay. I'm not crazy, you are. Colts-Patriots SGP +1938 Odds, FanDuel -Jonathan Taylor to score 2+ Touchdowns -Jonathan Taylor over 94.5 Rushing yards -Rhamondre Stevenson Over 70.5 Rush Yards -Brandon Bolden Under 28.5 Receiving Yards Monday Night Football is going to be a blast this week. After an awesome week 13 Sunday featuring an emotional Lions victory and an electric WFT powerhouse, we get a Monday Night Football matchup that is...dare I say, good for once. The best part? It's a matchup between 2 of my favorite 3 teams to bet on: the Bills and Patriots. I'll save my talk about the Vikings for next week.
I love these teams because of their consistency and (kind of) predictability. Both teams have great defenses and select players on offense that go wildly undervalued on sportsbooks. This is the kind of matchup where I'm going to build a parlay with a lot of props that may seem ridiculous but are actually realistic. Some folks can only handle 3-4 props max in a parlay, but due to the nature of this column and the matchup tonight I simply refuse to do that. Here we go: SGP: +5000 (DraftKings)
I get it, you think I'm crazy. Let's break this down. First of all, I'm fully aware of the Patriots defense allowing 270 yards on the ground to the Titans last week BUT that doesn't mean I'm going to trust Devin Singletary to rush for over 34.5 yards. The Bills simply don't believe in running the ball. They don't even believe in Zack Moss right now. They could roll out Matt Breida again, not run the ball, and just end up passing to him instead. No thanks. Next, let's break down the Patriots receiving corps. It goes a little like this: Jakobi Meyers gets the yards, Kendrick Bourne is a fantasy super star every 2 weeks, Nelson Agholor is an opportunist at most, Hunter Henry hawks the touchdown opportunities in the red zone, and Jonnu Smith is injured. Sportsbooks continue to disrespect Kendrick Bourne with plus odds, but the man has more fantasy points than Dalvin Cook this season. I have him as an anytime scorer in another parlay. You can count on him to get 20 receiving yards at the very least here. I'm simply choosing Hunter Henry here as I feel he's due for a touchdown here against a defense that just allowed Nick Vannett to score on national television. HONORABLE MENTION: Damien Harris anytime TD scorer, if you're just not fun, and not feeling Hunter Henry or Kendrick Bourne. It looks wrong not strutting out some Stefon Diggs/Emmanuel Sanders props, but I trust this Patriots secondary more in this matchup. With all of the attention probably going to these two, it'll open up some space for Knox and Gabe Davis to hit these little props. Davis has been getting 2-3 catches a game. 9 yards isn't asking for too much, is it? I love Josh Allen, but man he has thrown some ugly picks lately. I expect him to make a couple of questionable throws that will result in at least 1 interception tonight. In conclusion, this parlay is a lot. Any parlay is. Some might say "too much" but I stand by my reasoning here. I hope it helps you build a fun parlay too. At the very least, you may decide that you want to fade this whole article. This week's parlay only has 3 props. Short and sweet. Let's get to it:
TOTAL +1552 I guess the football world expects the red hot 8-2 Titans to roll over the Houston Texans this week. And hey, I get it. But this is the exact kind of game the Titans like to lose. They play extremely well when they're the underdogs, not when they are favored to win. Ryan Tannehill continues to put out decent performances but still tosses irresponsible picks at a worrisome rate. Kind of surprised at the odds on this prop. I'll take a stab here. Yes, the Bills are good at playing defense. And as a competing website pointed out, it's not their fault that they've played some stinky teams in the process. Let's not forget what Derrick Henry did to them earlier in the season, though. The Colts have a great offensive line and Jonathan Taylor will stop at nothing to chase the rushing title this year. 73.5 rushing yards is just too low not to bet on here. Last year's Joe Flacco experience should tell you everything you need to know. Jamison Crowder was his favorite target during that...stretch if you will. This one's a long shot but hey, that's what we're all about here at Pep's Picks. Jamison Crowder has a unique opportunity to be a fantasy sweetheart this week... And you know what? I'm going to add in my dark horse here who gave me a nice edge last week: Jamal Agnew. He's quietly getting some good production for his DK value on a horrible Jaguars offense, whether it be rushing or receiving. I will fire on an anytime touchdown here. +290 Unfortunately there's no video to watch and laugh at this week, but this disappointing (so far) column must go on.
Mac Jones OVER 0.5 Interceptions -135 Tyreek Hill OVER 82.5 Receiving Yards -115 Mark Andrews Anytime TD +110 Kareem Hunt Anytime TD -145 Kadarius Toney Anytime TD +210 Total +3479
To all 0 people reading this: I’m sorry. You trusted me after a solid week 1 and I failed you. It’s time to gain some public trust again with my week 3 picks. I felt really good going into week 2. So good, that I was watching some Panthers highlights and got a really good feeling about this Dan Arnold guy. I thought “this guy has the ability to score the first touchdown” so I threw my money at those +2300 odds just 2 minutes before Red Zone started up. Sure enough, Sam Darnold targeted Dan Arnold in the end zone on the first drive…only for it to sail above his head. Then the blatantly obvious thing happened: Sam hit the superstar Brandon Zylstra over the middle for a touchdown which would be the start of a lopsided affair against the Saints, ruining my chance of hitting my 16 game money line parlay. I felt helpless. I felt like resigning from ProFootballJokes. But then I wondered what Dan Arnold would do in this situation. He’d get back up and have the game of his life in week 3. And here we are. Dan Arnold, First TD Scorer +2500 (BetMGM) The Parlay: Dan Arnold Anytime Touchdown Scorer Dan Arnold Over 19.5 Receiving Yards Christian McCaffrey Over 39.5 Receiving Yards Mark Ingram Over 29.5 Rushing Yards Total Odds: +1100 Dan Arnold hauled in 3 catches for 55 yards on 4 targets in week 2 despite only playing 22 snaps on offense. It was a major improvement from his disappointing week 1 performance. So, that’s it. That’s good enough for me. Search “Dan Arnold” on Twitter to make yourself feel better. Christian McCaffrey is always in play to rack up yards in every which way. Even if the Texans offense led by the fearless rookie Davis Mills can’t put some pressure on the Panthers to score more points, McCaffrey will still smash the over on receiving yards. Here’s Christian McCaffrey’s receiving stat lines through 2 games: 9-89-0 5-65-1 While the Texans backfield is still the quintessential four headed monster of backfields, Mark Ingram is clearly…(dare I say) the leader of these running backs. Through 2 games Mark Ingram has carried the ball 40 times for 126 yards and a score. As long as this game doesn’t get immediately out of hand look for the Texans to at least take some pressure off Mills by giving the ball to Ingram early on. Then again, the Panthers defense just held the saints to 128 yards of offense. Just have some faith. More picks to be released Saturday, September 25th. Yet another disappointing Thursday night. Sam Darnold refused to give Dan Arnold some looks when he was wide open. That's okay, here's a few props for you to think on before Sunday's slate:
 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Don't sue me. Thanks. Last week I leaned heavily on Gabriel Davis scoring the first touchdown of the game vs. the Steelers, and that hunch paid off. While my other picks fell short, we were able to finish in the green. That's the beauty of swinging for the fences. You just need one big hit. It's nice to have a week of football under our belt so we don't have to study preseason tape or filter through beat reports as heavily as before to get an edge on the oddsmakers. One thing I realized after writing about all of these first touchdown props was that I wasn't giving love to any other player props on these slates. If you can combine a few of these to make a one game parlay with a nice payout, why not do it? After all, we spend way more time researching individual players for our fantasy lineups than these oddsmakers do for props. While we wait for more odds to be released for Sunday's games, here's a couple of picks for Thursday night's matchup between the Giants and Washington Football Team: Sterling Shepard to Score First Touchdown Against WFT Odds: +1300 (FanDuel) Sterling Shepard quietly put up one of the better stat lines at his position last week, going for 7 catches, 113 yards, and one touchdown. For now it appears that Shepard will still see targets even with Kenny Golladay in town. However, I'm more interested in Shepard's last 3 statlines against the WFT:
These aren't compelling stat lines to lean on, but I'm more focused on the consistent number of receptions he puts up against my favorite team. Perhaps one of his 6.5 receptions tonight will be the first touchdown of the game. One Game Parlay: -Antonio Gibson Over 70.5 Rushing Yards -Dyami Brown Over 32.5 Receiving Yards -Logan Thomas Over 48.5 Receiving Yards -Sterling Shepard Any Time Touchdown Scorer Odds: +3060 (FanDuel) If you're looking to get spicy on Thursday night while waiting for the odds to come out on Sunday's games, why not ride with this parlay? Antonio Gibson carried the ball 20 times for 90 yards against the Chargers. Dyami Brown played almost every offensive snap on Sunday. Logan Thomas is a reliable target for Taylor Heinicke. Sterling Shepard will continue to see looks especially with Kenny Golladay taking up some attention from Washington's DBs. Article will be updated as more odds are released for Sunday's games. MORE PICKS UPDATED 9/18 Marquez Callaway to Score First Touchdown Against Panthers Odds: +1200 (FanDuel) Emmanuel Sanders to Score First Touchdown Against Dolphins Odds: +1700 (FanDuel)  |
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